Along with the UIS, we have just released the latest figures on out-of-school children on VIEW, a new web platform. They show that 244 million children and youth around the world, or one in six, are still excluded from education. Overall, 98 million or the largest share of out-of-school children and youth are found in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number is actually increasing. Of those, 20 million are in Nigeria, up from 13 million in 2010. This mean it is the country with the third largest out-of-school population in the world after India and Pakistan. But Nigeria holds the unenviable position of being the country with the largest population of out-of-school children of primary school age: 9.6 million in 2020, up from 6.4 million n 2000 and 7.5 million in 2010.

This is the first time in 10 years that an estimate has been published for Nigeria. Historically, such estimates have relied exclusively on administrative data, which have been incomplete. Moreover, they rely on population estimates, which are also imprecise given that there has not been a population census since 2006 and even so the history these censuses have been highly contested. However, several household surveys have taken place in Nigeria over the last two decades. Such data had not been used before. A new methodology proposed by the UIS and the GEM Report has enabled the use of multiple data sources to update these estimates, following similar practices in the estimation of flagship health indicators.

The evidence suggests that the out-of-school rate among children of primary school age has hardly changed in 20 years, having fallen from 33% in 2000 to 27% in 2012 but remaining stagnant ever since. But the out-of-school rate among adolescents and youth of lower and upper secondary school age has been increasing since 2008, reaching 31% and 40% respectively by 2020.

It is hard not to associate this increase with the impact of conflict and the role of Boko Haram, a terrorist group notorious for its kidnappings school girls. Between 2009 and 2015, attacks by the group caused the destruction of 910 schools and led to the closure of a further 1,500.

But many of the other socioeconomic indicators have also not improved. Poverty is a key barrier with 40% of Nigerians living below the poverty line of US$1.90 a day, which may lead to almost 20 million Nigerians facing food insecurity in 2022.

Public spending on education is very low. As a result of chronic under-investment in education by the government, Nigerian households end up picking up 72% of total education expenditure in the country. Households lament the high cost of sending their children to school.

Another consequence of under-investment is the lack of public schools. Most large Nigerian cities have experienced a proliferation of low-cost private schools, which mostly operate outside government control. In rural areas, schools were simply too far away.

Early marriage is another significant factor. A household survey in 2018/19 showed that one in five adolescents were not in school due to marriage and pregnancy. Nigeria has some of the highest child marriage rates in the world with 43% of women ages 20 to 24 married by the age of 18. Adolescent girls are forced to give up their education in order to raise and look after a family instead. According to Human Rights Watch, there are concerns that the high child marriage rates have been further exacerbated by COVID-19.

Stagnation in out-of-school rates inevitably has led to increases in out-of-school numbers as a result of rapid demographic growth. The number of children of primary school age  increased by 35% between 2000 and 2010 and by 32% between 2010 and 2020, from 19.6 million to 26.4 million and 34.8 million, respectively.

Nigeria has signed up to the promise of ensuring free quality primary and secondary education for all children by 2030. For the last two years, UNESCO has led a process whereby governments have set their own national benchmarks for progress towards that goal. Nigeria has participated in this important initiative, committing to reduce the percentage of out-of-school children of primary school age to 17% by 2030 and that of youth of upper secondary school to 26% by 2030. This will require a significant investment in the education system. These new data should act as a wake-up call.